site.btaGallup Predicts Vote Redistribution, with 51% of Bulgarians Ready to Go to the Polls on April 19

A nationally representative survey by Gallup International Balkan, published on Monday, indicates a new parliamentary configuration and a redistribution of the vote, with around 51% of respondents declaring readiness to take part in the early parliamentary elections on April 19.

The findings show that among respondents who have already decided how they intend to vote, the coalition associated with Rumen Radev secures strong initial backing but remains short of a stand-alone parliamentary majority, with 29.8%. This support is driven more by voters shifting from other parties than by first-time or previously inactive voters. The data show that the greatest inflow comes from supporters of several political forces: 62.5% of those who voted for BSP-United Left in October 2024 would now back Radev’s formation, as would 46.7% of voters of Vazrazhdane, 30% of supporters of MECh and 20.7% of former voters of Continue the Change – Democratic Bulgaria (CC-DB).

In second place is GERB-UDF with 19.6%. The formation continues to rely on a stable electoral core. Analysts note that any narrowing of the gap with the frontrunner will depend largely on the effectiveness of the forthcoming campaign.

Third place, though showing a downward trend, is held by CC-DB with 11%. The analysts attribute the decline partly to controversies surrounding the Petrohan multiple-murder case and to perceptions linking the formation to the caretaker government. They add that mobilization of protest-minded voters could potentially improve its result.

Close behind is the Movement for Rights and Freedoms – New Beginning with 10.9% among decided voters.

Next comes Vazrazhdane with 6%.

Below the 4% threshold, with varying prospects of entering parliament, are MECh at 3.3%, BSP-United Left at 2.9%, There Is Such a People at 2.8% and Velichie at 2.2%. With 1%, the Alliance for Rights and Freedoms would remain outside the next National Assembly if elections were held today, the survey shows.

The survey is part of the polling agency’s independent research programme and is financed with its own funds. It was carried out through standardized, face-to-face personal interviews with 800 adult citizens between February 10 and 28, 2026. The sampling method was a quota sample based on age, sex, education and type of settlement. The maximum statistical error is ±3.5% at a 50% share and a 95% confidence level.